Alice Popescu, Portfolio Manager, participated in the Pension & Investments webinar entitled “Emerging Markets: A Resilient Outlook.” Topics covered include why EM allocations belong in institutional portfolios, the regions/countries representing the best investment opportunities in EM today, perspectives on China, the benefits of active management, and key considerations for investors considering EM. Click 'Read more' below to access the recording of the webinar. A copy of the P&I EM supplement is also available for download.
5 min read | by Alice Popescu | Earlier this year, I spent two weeks on the ground in India meeting with over 40 corporate and political contacts. The major themes that emerged from the discussions were related to Semi Urban Rural (SURU) developments, the rise of domestic manufacturing clusters, and an underappreciated energy transition. The trip reinforced our belief that India offers an abundance of attractive, long-term investment opportunities among undervalued and often overlooked companies – perhaps surprising to some given its position as the world’s largest democracy (and most populated country).
8 min read | by Rich McCormick and Elijah Crago | Investor pessimism on the ground in Brazil has reached an extreme relative to the past decade – but where negative sentiment exists, there may also be value. The return to power of a leftist president, anti-business rhetoric, and interest rates back at decade highs have turned many investors away altogether – resulting in some of the lowest valuations in the world. Upon returning from a recent two-week trip to Brazil, we are excited by the investment opportunities emerging in the country.
9 min read | The Altrinsic Emerging Markets Opportunities portfolio gained 5.6% (5.4% net) this quarter, outperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index's 4.0% return, as measured in US dollars. Performance throughout the period varied markedly within emerging markets. The year began with strength in North Asian (China, Taiwan, and Korea) large caps on momentum from China’s reopening. The robust start tailed off as corporate scandals and political headlines drove underperformance in the large markets of India and Brazil. Additionally, turmoil in the global banking sector following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) made its mark on EM equities, though in a more subdued manner.
10 min read | Global equities delivered strong gains during the first quarter as investors shrugged off two of the three largest bank failures in US history and the collapse of once venerable Credit Suisse. The proximate cause for the rally is a belief that inflation risk is vanquished, interest rates have peaked, years of extraordinary financial stimulus can be normalized painlessly, and the global economy will not experience a downturn. This implies a tremendous amount of confidence in policymakers.
10 min read | Equities delivered strong gains during the first quarter as investors shrugged off two of the three largest bank failures in US history and the collapse of once venerable Credit Suisse. The proximate cause for the rally is a belief that inflation risk is vanquished, interest rates have peaked, years of extraordinary financial stimulus can be normalized painlessly, and the global economy will not experience a downturn. This implies a tremendous amount of confidence in policymakers.
5 min read | by Geoff MacPhail | The application of technology in agriculture has the potential to transform farmers’ operations and generate tremendous growth opportunities for the companies driving innovation [click here to read more]. When you speak with farmers, you frequently hear “yield is everything.” This certainly rang true over the three days that I spent in Boone, Iowa at the Farm Progress Show last year.
In light of the significant developments in the US and European banking industry, we wanted to provide a brief update on our exposures, share some thoughts, and offer some issues to consider.
Emerging markets are often defined by macro dynamics, but the fourth quarter was especially active on the political and policy fronts. A few key examples include: 1) China’s 20th Party Congress (and the eventual surprise unwinding of zero-COVID policies), 2) Brazil’s presidential elections (and the social unrest that followed), 3) signs of a peaking US dollar (and its effects on global currency valuations), and 4) easing inflation in the US (which could be followed by a shift in monetary policy with carry-over effects in emerging markets). Despite the unsettled circumstances, emerging market equities performed in line with developed markets.
10 min read | Global markets recovered strongly during the fourth quarter, aided by falling inflation expectations, optimism that the US Federal Reserve would move away from aggressive policy tightening, an improved energy outlook in Europe, and President Xi’s unexpected decision to unwind zero-COVID policies. The rally was certainly welcomed, but 2022 was the most challenging year since the global financial crisis. According to Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, global investors lost US$23T of wealth in housing and financial assets in 2022, equivalent to 22% of global GDP and greater than the US$18T of losses suffered in the 2008 financial crisis. Commodities were the only refuge, as long-term bonds had their worst year since the 18th century (according to the Financial Times) and equities fell 18.1% in 2022 (MSCI World Index) even after rising 9.8% in the fourth quarter, as measured in US dollars.
