7 min read | Uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies, the release of DeepSeek's AI model, and mixed economic data fueled a turbulent first quarter. The strong confidence in US economic and market "exceptionalism" at the start of the year quickly shifted to pervasive uncertainty. International markets significantly outperformed US equities, with the “Magnificent 7” suffering one of their worst quarters on record, and markets broadened out from narrow technology stock leadership.
7 min read | Uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies, the release of DeepSeek's AI model, and mixed economic data fueled a turbulent first quarter. The strong confidence in US economic and market "exceptionalism" at the start of the year quickly shifted to pervasive uncertainty. International markets significantly outperformed US equities, with the “Magnificent 7” suffering one of their worst quarters on record, and markets broadened out from narrow technology stock leadership.
11 min read | by Alice Popescu | I recently traveled to Chile and Peru to uncover deeper insights about an area that benefits from a less recognized, yet quite compelling, narrative. Demographic tailwinds, impressive economic growth, an increasing culture of innovation and disruption, and scalable regional expansion opportunities for both domestic players and global emerging market companies involved in the EM de-coupling movement form the basis of an exciting, under-the-radar investment landscape. As we approach International Women’s Day, I would also be remiss not to mention the region’s impressive progress on financial inclusion and women’s economic empowerment, which I had the distinct pleasure of experiencing firsthand at the largest informal market in the Americas.
6 min read | by Srinivas Polaki | I recently spent ten days in Japan, meeting with 35 companies across the country's broad industrial ecosystem. I observed a notable shift within Japanese corporations, marked by a heightened willingness to engage with shareholders and proactively address competitive pressures. The automotive sector, a cornerstone of Japan’s industrial strength, is experiencing profound disruption that is cascading through the entire supply chain and injecting a sense of urgency to realign corporate strategies.
10 min read | Over the last several months, industry pundits have been hyper-focused on a handful of topics: the effects of a Trump presidency on trade relations and tariff policies, the economic situation in China, the continued dominance of the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks, and the related “US exceptionalism” narrative. In nearly all these conversations, emerging markets have been assigned a “murky at best” outlook. However, a closer look reveals that valuations, profitability, and earnings growth are quite attractive across many emerging market countries; EM is poised to “trump” tariff threats.
10 min read | Divergence in the performance between AI-led US markets and the rest of the world accelerated in the fourth quarter, fueled by optimism after the Trump election victory and a strong US dollar. “US exceptionalism” continues to be the mantra in markets, and this has certainly been reflected in equity market performance, elevated valuations of the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks, and the premium afforded to most US companies relative to their international peers. As we assess the narrow market leadership that is extended by most measures and by historical comparisons, we believe that, while possible, it is unlikely that many companies, particularly those in the US, can deliver on the long-term expectations embedded in their valuations.
10 min read | Divergence in the performance between AI-led US markets and the rest of the world accelerated in the fourth quarter, fueled by optimism after the Trump election victory and a strong US dollar. “US exceptionalism” continues to be the mantra in markets, and this has certainly been reflected in equity market performance, elevated valuations of the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks, and the premium afforded to most US companies relative to their international peers. As we assess the narrow market leadership that is extended by most measures and by historical comparisons, we believe that, while possible, it is unlikely that many companies, particularly those in the US, can deliver on the long-term expectations embedded in their valuations.
9 min read | After considerable volatility throughout the quarter, emerging markets performance took a dramatic positive turn during the last few weeks of September when Chinese leadership announced sweeping measures, both monetary and regulatory, to support the economy and boost capital markets. Whether or not it will ultimately be successful remains to be seen. Two of the other themes we are investigating this quarter can, for different reasons, be filed under the saying “don’t judge a book by its cover” – first, the relationship between return of capital and actual yields, and second, the investment opportunity set in the EM pharma sector.
7 min read | Central bank policy actions, easing inflationary pressures, and expectations of a “soft” economic landing remained supportive for equities. Market leadership broadened away from a small subset of large-cap growth stocks and deep cyclicals, a trend both overdue and supported by fundamentals. Although a high degree of crowding, complacency, and lofty expectations remain in the areas that have led markets in recent years, elsewhere in international markets there are plentiful investment opportunities offering attractive value with more sustainable and/or improving earnings prospects. From our perspective, the greatest risks currently stem from macro and geopolitical dynamics, as well as corporate earnings disappointments in cyclical segments of the market.
7 min read | Central bank policy actions, easing inflationary pressures, and expectations of a “soft” economic landing remained supportive for equities. Market leadership broadened away from a small subset of large-cap growth stocks and deep cyclicals, a trend both overdue and supported by fundamentals. Although a high degree of crowding, complacency, and lofty expectations remain in the areas that have led markets in recent years, elsewhere in global markets there are plentiful investment opportunities offering attractive value with more sustainable and/or improving earnings prospects. From our perspective, the greatest risks currently stem from macro and geopolitical dynamics, as well as corporate earnings disappointments in cyclical segments of the market.
